决策者 发挥“金砖+” 机制的倍增效应

2022年，中国接任金砖国家主席国，其标志性的成果是出台了一系列规划，来推动“金砖+”合作机制走向制度化并探索金砖国家扩容的可能性。目前，针对“金砖+”机制未来发展的探讨主要集中于扩容路径：是吸纳新的国家加入，还是采用“一体化组织整合”模式，即创建以金砖国家为成员的区域组织合作平台。

The main hallmark of China's chairmanship of the BRICS grouping in 2022 has been the unveiling of plans to institutionalize the "BRICS Plus" format and explore the possibilities of expanding the core of the BRICS bloc. The current debate regarding the future trajectories of the "BRICS Plus" format centers on whether the expansion of the bloc is to proceed one by one via adding new countries to the BRICS core, or through the format of "integration of integrations," namely the creation of a platform for the cooperation of regional arrangements in which BRICS countries are members. 

就目前来看，两种路径均有可能且各有利弊。但区域性“一体化组织整合”模式有一个突出的优势，即“金砖+ ”机制的倍增效应可极大拓展金砖国家与其他“全球南方”国家间的合作。

At this stage it appears that both tracks are possible and have their pros and cons. But there is one factor in the regional "integration of integrations" model that has particular merit – it is the "BRICS Plus" multiplier that allows for a significant extension in the outreach undertaken by core BRICS economies with respect to the rest of the Global South.

从规模上来看，两种路径可以用算数级数和几何级数之间的差异来解释。如果将吸纳单一国家加入的渐进式扩容方法看做算数级数，那么以“一体化组织整合”为路径的“金砖+ ” 模式则是范围和影响力都更为宏大的几何级数。

In terms of scale, the effects of the two formats of BRICS expansion may be mathematically illustrated by the difference between the arithmetic and geometric progressions. If the one-by-one expansion in the core of the BRICS grouping represents the minimalism of the arithmetic progression, the "BRICS Plus" format of "integration of integrations" can be seen as a far more extensive and ambitious undertaking characterized by a geometric progression. 

在算数级数模式下，金砖国家可能会通过数轮扩容逐步吸纳一个或多个最具影响力的国家加入（例如二十国集团中的“全球南方”国家成员）。而几何级数模式则可推动实现金砖五国各自参与的区域性一体化组织的叠加——最具代表性的是由环孟加拉湾多领域经济技术合作倡议、 欧亚经济联盟、中国-东盟自由贸易区、南方共同市场和南部非洲关税同盟组成的“BEAMS”平台——使扩容数量最多增至25个（5x5或者金砖五国经济体的平方），形成由金砖五国在各自区域的邻国和伙伴组成的“金砖+”朋友圈。

With respect to the arithmetic progression, the waves of the expansion in the BRICS core may involve a sequential addition of one or several countries representing the most significant heavyweights (possibly members of G20 from the Global South). The alternative is the aggregation of the regional integration blocs of all of the five BRICS members – represented by the "BEAMS" platforms consisting of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area, Mercosur and the South African Customs Union – leading to the addition of up to 25 members (the five-times-five geometric progression – or the five BRICS taken to the power of two) of the "BRICS Plus" circle that are the regional neighbors or partners of BRICS economies.

“金砖+”几何级数还可进一步升级，通过吸纳非洲联盟、拉丁美洲及加勒比国家共同体以及属于“全球南方”的欧亚大陆经济体扩大平台规模，将更多国家纳入合作机制。

This "BRICS Plus" geometric progression can be taken further to the next level whereby a wider circle of countries is included into the enlarged platform that comprises the African Union in Africa, Community of Latin American and Caribbean States in Latin America and the Eurasian economies from the Global South.

对欧亚大陆发展中国家的吸收可以通过诸如上海合作组织、海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会、东盟、南亚区域合作联盟和欧亚经济联盟等主要区域性一体化组织实现。

The Eurasian constellation of developing economies can be formed on the basis of the aggregation of the main regional integration blocs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Gulf Cooperation Council, ASEAN, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, and the EAEU.

这样一个跨越“全球南方”三个大洲的广阔合作平台可以称为 “三大洲洲际合作组织”，其成员包括125到130个发展中经济体（确切数量取决于吸纳欧亚大陆经济体的具体方法）。这样，对“金砖+”平台的第二轮扩容就可实现5x5x5的几何级数，或者金砖五国经济体的立方。

Such an extended platform across all three continents of the Global South may be termed as TRIA (Trilateral Intercontinental Alliance), and it comprises nearly 125 to 130 developing economies (depending on the exact methodological approach of including the Eurasian economies). This second sequence of extending the "BRICS Plus" platform results in a "five times five times five" geometric progression – or the five BRICS economies taken to the power of three.

Yang Jiechi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, chairs the 12th Meeting of BRICS National Security Advisers and High Representatives on National Security via video link, June 15, 2022. /China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs

如果将所有双边或多边贸易协议、数字联盟和其他可通过“金砖+”平台实现多边化的组织也考虑在内，那么“金砖+”机制的几何级数式扩容还可以实现进一步升级。例如，以色列-南方共同市场自由贸易协定或南部非洲关税同盟-欧洲自由贸易联盟自由贸易协定都可以通过吸纳更多“金砖+”机制中的发展中国家成员来扩大规模。

These stages of progression in the extension of the "BRICS Plus" circle can be taken to an even higher level if one is to account for all of the bilateral or plurilateral trade deals, digital alliances and other accords that may be multilateralized on the basis of the "BRICS Plus" platform. For example, the Israel-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement or the Southern African Customs Union-the European Free Trade Association Free Trade Agreement could be extended to include more developing countries from the "BRICS Plus" circle. 

在现阶段，“金砖+”平台正在纳入更多一体化联盟或推动这些联盟间的匹配组合。“全球南方”的各个主要区域和区域性一体化组织都有自己的联盟网络，可通过“金砖+”机制这一广泛性的“全球南方”合作网络实现共享。

At this stage the combinatorics of matching and aggregating the multitudes of alliances along the "BRICS Plus" platform kicks in – each of the main regions and regional integration grouping from the Global South has its own cobweb of alliances that can be shared throughout this extended network of Global South.   

如果“金砖+”平台更开放、更包容，并且由发展中国家同全球合作伙伴构成的同盟之间建立更加紧密的联系，那么倍增效应将会进一步增强。换言之，为了加强倍增效应，“一体化组织整合”模式下的“金砖+”平台需要依赖于具备可扩展性并能够与其他区域性集团合作的联盟（即可实现“全球化”的区域性联盟）。

Such additional multiplier effects will be all the more powerful, the greater the openness and inclusiveness of the aggregated "BRICS Plus" platform and the more connectivity there is across the alliances concluded by developing economies with their partners from across the globe. In other words, in order to enable the multiplier effects to be increased, the "BRICS Plus" platform of "integration of integrations" needs to be predicated on alliances that are scalable and capable of connecting with other regional blocs (regional alliances that can be "globalized"). 

反过来，着力打造区域性发展机制（需具备针对公私合作伙伴的标准化投资协议）和大力发展可扩展和可复制的数字经济联盟将会促进上述目标的达成。

This in turn may be facilitated by particular emphasis placed on building platforms for regional development institutions (with standardized protocols for investment projects, including with respect to public to private partnerships); greater scope for digital economic alliances that may be particularly amenable to scale and replication.

总而言之，如果渐进式扩容模式下的“金砖+”机制只关注自身，而不是力图建立一个更加广泛的联盟网络，那么其现状可能只是发生一些无关紧要的变化，同时“全球南方”乃至全球经济也会错失良机。

In sum, the "BRICS Plus" track of country-by-country additions to the BRICS core if pursued solely on its own without building a broader network of alliances may result in minor alterations to the status quo and a missed opportunity for the Global South and the broader global economy. 

相反，如果“一体化组织整合”模式下的“金砖+”能做到开放和包容，并确保各区域性一体化组织间的互联互通，那么这一扩容模式能够创造无限可能。这将为经济合作带来亟需的“倍增效应”，并能够启动新的全球化进程，促进发达国家区域性组织和发展中国家区域性组织间的联通。

At the same time, the possibilities offered by the "integration of integrations" track for the "BRICS Plus" are substantial, provided that such a platform is open, inclusive and ensures connectivity across regional integration arrangements – this will deliver the much needed "multiplier effect" in the process of economic cooperation and can set off a new process of globalization that connects regional arrangements in the developed and the developing world. 

这一范式可能才是金砖国家的真正使命：金砖国家的价值不在于成员国各自的发展，而在于彼此携手，共同构筑并支撑全球经济架构的大厦。

Such a paradigm may be the real mission of BRICS after all – the value of BRICS is not in each member separately, but rather in them being connected together to form a construct that supports the edifice of the global economic architecture.

（本文作者：雅罗斯拉夫·利萨沃利克 (Yaroslav Lissovolik) 系瓦尔代（Valdai）国际辩论俱乐部项目主管和俄罗斯国际事务委员会成员）